Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.760504 0.885579 1.024360 1.189716 1.381348 1.596429 1.856164
2025-01-26 0.561685 0.729833 0.937147 1.211338 1.564363 2.003594 2.591817
2025-02-02 0.477369 0.670199 0.926280 1.290787 1.796068 2.471745 3.444447
2025-02-09 0.408936 0.611577 0.897486 1.329539 1.965493 2.867114 4.243346
2025-02-16 0.352957 0.557623 0.861953 1.346296 2.097182 3.216844 5.014383
2025-02-23 0.305784 0.507448 0.821746 1.345687 2.196498 3.523565 5.752129
2025-03-02 0.265712 0.461280 0.779483 1.332915 2.270491 3.794193 6.460127
2025-03-09 0.235382 0.426059 0.748916 1.332915 2.361756 4.098354 7.253942
2025-03-16 0.202455 0.381219 0.695511 1.285468 2.363853 4.250193 7.802105
2025-03-23 0.194265 0.379371 0.716304 1.370717 2.608229 4.845102 9.197121
2025-03-30 0.170479 0.344936 0.673377 1.332804 2.621566 5.026352 9.855748
2025-04-06 0.149028 0.311961 0.628780 1.285396 2.609759 5.157235 10.430472
2025-04-13 0.130689 0.283146 0.589441 1.244943 2.609800 5.316884 11.094169
2025-04-20 0.120992 0.270990 0.581990 1.268474 2.742323 5.753080 12.369848
2025-04-27 0.117747 0.272150 0.601979 1.351651 3.008471 6.488592 14.351783
2025-05-04 0.111009 0.264581 0.602322 1.392206 3.187868 7.063283 16.058914
2025-05-11 0.103139 0.253283 0.592967 1.409742 3.318133 7.546627 17.621861
2025-05-18 0.094823 0.239731 0.576707 1.409105 3.406424 7.946292 19.041077
2025-05-25 0.086565 0.225155 0.556205 1.395740 3.463078 8.280268 20.346775
2025-06-01 0.079986 0.213848 0.542028 1.395740 3.551388 8.696442 21.895173
2025-06-08 0.071316 0.195956 0.509519 1.346086 3.511661 8.804922 22.708446
2025-06-15 0.070721 0.199298 0.530581 1.435298 3.831703 9.819212 25.892604
2025-06-22 0.063821 0.184598 0.503516 1.395623 3.815050 9.997898 26.970886